In 2020, the world came to a standstill, and a whole new manner of living was adopted. Movements were prohibited, lockdowns and curfews were implemented and the wearing of masks was enforced. All this was because of the outbreak of the coronavirus, which was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization [WHO] on 30th January 2020 and on 11th March as a pandemic. Vaccines were later introduced to curb the spread of the virus and slowly go back to the pre-COVID-19 lifestyle.
As the world is healing from the pandemic, there are numerous effects that have been felt in all spheres, the peace and security of countries internally and externally being one of them7. Though one cannot fully define peace and security, it can be understood as being free from any form of danger or violence and being in harmony with oneself and others.
It is thus the duty of governments to ensure that citizens are living in peaceful and secure conditions to maintain good standards of living. Hence the pandemic brought a significant shift in the state of peace and security globally due to policies adopted by world leaders to try and do what’s best for their respective countries and the world at large.
Changes in the state of peace and security
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, movements were restricted, quarantines were issued and people had to retreat indoors. This increased losses, poverty levels, distress, depression and a number of protests and riots in some countries.
A few months later when vaccines were introduced, movements and access to some services such as educational institutions were eased. However, globally, the unvaccinated are still denied access to different services, with some losing or on the brink of losing their jobs. This has caused unrest within communities with anti-vaxxers or vaccine deniers starting up movements and demonstrations to have their voices heard against the vaccine mandates. This still points to a conflicting post-pandemic era.
COVID-19 impacts led to severe and widespread increases in global food insecurity, affecting vulnerable households in almost every country, with impacts expected to continue into 2022 and possibly beyond8. The primary risks to food insecurity are at the country level, with possibilities of higher retail prices, disrupted supply chains, and combined reduced incomes, which means that more and more households are having to cut down on the quantity and quality of their food consumption, with facing chronic and acute hunger. Food shortages deepen existing fault lines and fuel grievances, which increase the chances of unrest and violence.
COVID-19 also led to economic disruptions that are likely to slow down the global economy, which was already weakened by various tensions including trade tariffs9. It is still difficult to predict what the full economic impact of the outbreak will look like, but it has already led to demand and supply shocks, thrown companies into bankruptcy, led to factory closures etc. In early 2021, World Bank reported that the Rwandan economy had fallen into its first recession due to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and could potentially compromise years of gains in poverty reduction10. Many countries also reported dire economic effects with severe adverse implications on both the nations’ revenues and the households’ losses. With limited or no knowledge of how long the pandemic will last, studies and reports have indicated that the poor national economic performance will likely lead to a higher incidence of conflicts in different societies and countries.
There is no doubt that the pandemic has led to the decline of many sectors and registered many losses in general. However, as the world is slowly regaining a semblance of normalcy, with the number of vaccinated people increasing, schools resuming and workplaces and movements gradually opening up, the hope is that governments and leaders will be deliberate in their post-pandemic responses. It is, therefore, urgent that, efforts will be defended to ensure investment in upstream conflict prevention that addresses underlying vulnerabilities, particularly inequality and unemployment, as well as improving the existing local capacities to recover from crises, for peace and security to be a chance.